CTV News Montreal

Updated: Sun Nov. 08 2009 11:04:01 AM

CTV.ca News

A general election may seem far off on the horizon, but Canada's four major political parties face a test of their popularity on Monday. That's when voters head to the polls in byelections across three provinces.

"It's a bit of a test of the mood of the country, politically," CTV's Craig Oliver said by phone from Ottawa. "Even though byelections aren't a test of the government, they do give you a feel for where things might be at."

None of the ridings are particularly representative of the country's political landscape, University of Toronto professor Nelson Wiseman told CTV.ca, and voting rates are usually lower outside of general elections. But the results could still shed light on how Canadians feel about how their political parties are performing.

British Columbia

Front and centre is B.C.'s New Westminster-Coquitlam riding. Voters are set to choose between two leading candidates, the Conservatives' Diana Dilworth and the New Democrats' Fin Donnelly.

Donnelly has been campaigning with NDP Leader Jack Layton, who has visited the riding four times since the byelection was called in June. Donnelly opposes the province's proposed Harmonized Sales Tax, presenting it as a key issue in the election.

Meanwhile Dilworth, a local city councilor, has been keeping a low profile during her campaign, apparently opting to run on her party's reputation.

"She's not showing up at campaign events," Wiseman said. "The Conservative machine has told her to lie low: 'Your appearance will only hurt us, we can win without you campaigning.'"

Whether that strategy will pay off is hard to tell. The Conservatives won the riding in 2006 but the NDP has held it since then, and the race is expected to be close.

Quebec

Two byelections are taking place in Quebec on Monday. The Montreal riding of Hochelaga is considered a stronghold for the Bloc Quebecois. Daniel Paillé, a former Parti Québécois cabinet minister, will likely win the seat.

Farther up the St. Lawrence River, voters in the Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup riding are heading to the polls.

Bloc Quebecois candidate Nancy Gagnon is favoured to win. However, a former mayor named Bernard Généreux is hoping to steal a victory for the Tories.

"That would be a real coup," Wiseman said. "The Conservatives have got a decent chance because their candidate is known and the Bloc candidate isn't known."

But outrage over Ottawa's plans to scrap the federal long-gun registry may work in favour of the Bloc, as the program is popular in the province.

The Liberals aren't expected to produce a strong showing in either riding. Polls show they have been losing popularity in the province, partly because of recent squabbling within the party.

Nova Scotia

On the East Coast, voters in the riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley will likely send Conservative candidate Scott Armstrong to Parliament Hill.

While the NDP unexpectedly took control of Nova Scotia in the last provincial election, the Tories have enjoyed widespread support in the riding for a half-century.

"If that seat doesn't go Conservative then that is a real slap in the face for the government," Wiseman said.

The NDP may be able to take consolation in the fact that, according to recent polls, they don't appear to have been hurt by their decision to support Stephen Harper's Conservative government, Wiseman added.

Instead, he said the Liberals' popularity has waned after announcing in September that they would try to bring down the Conservative-led government. But whether such national sentiments will play out in a handful of the country's 308 federal ridings is hard to say.

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