MONTREAL - With a showdown in Ottawa over the federal budget, and recommendations the Conservative party be found in contempt of Parliament, an election is all but inevitable.
When the writ drops Quebec will become a hotly-contested battleground for the major political parties.
Analysts expect that ridings in and around Quebec City and Montreal will be key for any party hoping to win enough seats to become the government.
"How will the Conservatives be in Area 418 around Quebec City, will the decision not to fund an arena hit them," said political analyst L. Ian MacDonald.
The Conservatives currently hold 10 seats in the province, mostly around Quebec City, while the Liberals hold 14 seats in and around Montreal.
Pundits expect the Conservative party to make a push for seats in Montreal by running former Alouettes president and Senator Larry Smith in the Lac Saint Louis riding, and the party is reportedly courting Robert Libman to run against Irwin Cotler in Mount Royal.
The voters of Lac Saint Louis have always sent a Liberal to parliament, and Francis Scarpalaggia has held the riding since 2004.
The last time voters in the region elected a non-Liberal was in 1984 and 1988, when Bob Layton represented Lachine-Lac Saint Louis as a Progressive Conservative.
Some people on the street in Pointe Claire seem enthusiastic about electing a Conservative like Smith, especially if it meant Montreal would be represented in the Cabinet.
"His name would carry a lot of weight," said one man, while another mused that electing Smith "would certainly offer advantages and would make us closer to the decision process."
However many people seemed to be content with their current representative, with one man saying "this has been Liberal territory for a long, long time. I think we're happy with the Liberals."
The Harper government's support of Israel is expected to give whoever is chosen to represent the party in Mount Royal a boost, although a realistic analysis would indicate hopes are slim.
Liberals have held the riding since 1940, sent Prime Minister Pierre-Eliott Trudeau to parliament with very solid majorities.
Irwin Cotler has represented Mount Royal since 1999, never earning less than 57 percent of the vote, and at a minimum winning twice as many votes as his closest competitor.
Charest says he will not get involved
This will be the fourth federal election to occur since Jean Charest became Premier, and he says that unlike previous elections, this time he will not be sending letters to federal party leaders with a wish list for Quebec.
In 2008 Charest did wade into the debate, harshly criticizing a Conservative decision to cut funding for the arts.
However since then he has worked to smooth things over with the federal leader, and last week met Stephen Harper when he arrived in Quebec City to announce federal funding for an airport.
That being said, there are several issues that Charest hopes are addressed during an election campaign.
"Old Harry, that's the issue of the [natural gas and oil] resources in the Gulf of St. Lawrence," said Charest.
"There's the issue of the harmonization of our sales tax, the QST, with the federal sales tax."
Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe has also pushed hard to see Quebec paid roughly $2 billion for the two-decade old harmonization of the GST and the QST.
Minority or majority?
As to whether the fourth election since 2004 will result in a majority government to the nation, it's anyone's guess, although most pundits say the prime minister has an edge.
"Stephen Harper is sitting in the catbird seat," said MacDonald, with a ten point lead in most polls.
But no one can predict if that is enough to win a majority of seats in Parliament.
"I think we're looking at two possible outcomes, a small majority Conservative government or even a reduced Conservative government," said MacDonald.
Whatever happens, an election may offer the chance to breathe new life, and new respect, into the House of Commons.
"The atmosphere, the toxicity around here is worse than it's ever been. I've been here since Diefenbaker," said MacDonald.
