Back when Andrei Markov ripped his right knee to shreds for the second time in seven months – in only his seventh game back from the first injury – I wrote that sentimentality cannot play into the Canadiens decision to bring him back.

I still feel that way, except the doubts I had back then about Markov's ability to fully recover from his surgery have been replaced by some guarded optimism.

Because there is a difference between sheer sentimentality and wanting to protect an asset that may be on the cusp of entering some prime years for a defenceman.

Markov is 32, an age when many defencemen start playing their best hockey, and with his injury he is in no position to ask for the kind of raise from his $5.75 million annual salary that he surely would have received had he remained healthy.

Except he didn't remain healthy. Far from it.

Over the past two seasons Markov has played just 60 of Montreal's 190 regular season and playoff games. In those 60 games the Canadiens have a 33-20-7 record (4-4-0 in the playoffs).

In the other 130 games, that record drops to 62-57-11 (8-10-0 in the playoffs).

Of course, other injuries compounded Markov's absence in each of the last two seasons, but I thought that disparity in the team's record was worth noting, even if this dilemma is nowhere near being that simple.

Risk vs. reward

In my eyes, there are two major factors that must be considered when deciding not only whether or not to bring Markov back, but also in determining how much he gets paid and how long he's signed for.

The first, obviously, is his health and to what degree the Canadiens and GM Pierre Gauthier can be confident the recent string of injuries doesn't represent a pattern that will plague Markov for the rest of his career.

The second is need, a category that encompasses the potential of signing other free agents, whether the money Markov would make could be used more effectively at other positions and whether or not a team that once relied so heavily on him can now do without him.

Health

Let's start with the health issue.

By the time July 1 rolls around, it will have been nearly seven months since Markov underwent surgery in Birmingham, Alabama by renowned orthopedic surgeon James Andrews, a procedure that repaired his meniscus and rebuilt the ACL in his right knee on Dec. 8.

Prior to that, Markov had gone through a similar ACL rebuild in Cleveland, Ohio by Dr. Tony Minaci on May 5, one that kept him sidelined just under six months before he played his first game of the season on Oct. 30.

I'm no doctor, but one would think that logically speaking, having two surgeries of this kind in such a short period would leave that knee forever weakened – and therefore forever susceptible to further injury.

But again, I am not a doctor, and while it will only have been seven months since Markov's latest surgery when free agency opens, that rest period will jump to nine months by the time training camp opens in September.

Andrews is widely recognized as the best orthopedic surgeon for elite athletes in North America, and his alumni list of high-profile athletes is impressive.

However, back in September, 2009, Andrews was discussing success rates for high-level athletes undergoing ACL reconstructions, and he gave his own success rate. He told the Associated Press at the time that of the 58 pro basketball, football and hockey players he performed ACL surgery on between 2001 and 2006, 37 of them – or 64 per cent – returned to play.

I don't know how many of those were undergoing their second such operation in less than a year, but that number doesn't seem particularly high to me.

Yet Gauthier, Markov and his agent Don Meehan have all expressed their confidence that the knee will be fine, and while that's not surprising from the latter two, it is a little bit coming from Gauthier.

But then again, maybe it isn't.

Josh Gorges has spent a lot of time with Markov since he underwent an ACL repair of his own, and when he was asked about Markov's situation last week he was pretty forthright.

"Everybody knows what his ability is and what he brings to this team, and it cannot be forgotten. He's one of the best players that I've seen play," Gorges said. "Seeing how hard this guy trains, how hard he works in the gym is incredible. It pushes other guys to work that hard. You add that to his ability to take over a game on the ice, his leadership abilities."

The day after the Canadiens elimination from the playoffs, Gauthier was asked repeatedly what approach he would take with Markov. He gave several responses, but few real answers.

"Durability is something you always evaluate when looking at free agents," Gauthier said. "Mr. Markov has been with us since the beginning, he's a very strong player and I think any team would like to have him. So we'll see what we can do. But there are no promises as to what kind of direction those things take. We'll do the best thing for the franchise."

Though Gauthier had earlier said that the Canadiens would "of course" like to have Markov back, this was the most telling response – the one that most resembled an answer.

Within that one statement, Gauthier said the injury history will play a role in the Canadiens offer to Markov, but loyalty will play a role as well.

As we can see with Andrews' own statistics, bringing Markov back represents a significant level of risk. The question now is whether or not the potential reward outweighs that risk.

Need

Markov is but one of a slew of unrestricted free agent defencemen the Canadiens have right now. He's joined on that list by Roman Hamrlik, Hal Gill, James Wisniewski, Brent Sopel and Paul Mara. That's in addition to restricted free agents Josh Gorges, Yannick Weber and Alexandre Picard.

So the defence, aside from P.K. Subban and Jaroslav Spacek, is essentially an empty canvas, something Gauthier acknowledged as being an advantage because it enables the team to build it with few restrictions.

But ultimately, Gauthier will have to decide whether or not Markov is worth the salary he will command, a number that will surely start at his current $5.75 million salary.

The unrestricted free agent market for defencemen this summer is fairly thin at the elite level. A trio of Vancouver Canucks defencemen will be available in Christian Ehrhoff, Kevin Bieksa and Sami Salo – who is far more of an injury risk than Markov. There's also Tomas Kaberle, Joni Pitkanen, Bryan McCabe, Eric Brewer and Ed Jovanovski who are available.

And then there's Wisniewski, who will most definitely be looking for some long-term security at a high price after finishing the regular season tied for fifth in points among defencemen with 51. At 27 years of age, Wisniewski is part of a young group that includes Ehrhoff (28), Pitkanen (27), Bieksa (29), Anton Babchuk (26), Ian White (26), Andy Greene (28) and Grant Clitsome (26) who can cash in this summer thanks to their offensive abilities.

Except if we've reached this stage of the debate on Markov, it means the Canadiens have already accepted to take the risk that he'll remain healthy. And if he's healthy, could Markov not produce just as well – if not better – than the great majority of those defencemen? Furthermore, would he not be better in his own end?

Other than a few exceptions, the answer is yes. Markov at full strength is the best defenceman available on the free agent board, with the obvious exclusion of Nicklas Lidstrom because he's only a free agent in name.

In 2009-10, Markov was tied with Dan Boyle for fourth in the league in points per game by defencemen. He played on the top power play pairing and the second penalty killing pairing that season as well. In short, he was ranging from useful to dominant in all phases of the game.

The same cannot be said of Wisniewski, nor can it be said of several of the other available free agent defencemen available this summer.

But the same could be said of P.K. Subban, which raises another question: with Subban's ascension this season, is Markov suddenly expendable?

An argument can definitely be made in favour of that because judging by the improvements to Subban's game just this year – or really since Christmas – no one knows just how good he might be next season.

Subban would never make Markov redundant because having the two of them on the same power play would be lethal, but he might make it easier for Gauthier to decide that $6 million would be better spent on a big forward who can score – an area of clear need on the team.

A player like Brooks Laich would fill a serious need for the Canadiens, but it would also cost money. Same goes for Ville Leino, Curtis Glencross or, to a lesser extent, Tomas Kopecky, all players that would add some punch up front.

Still, just as the potential of Subban would be a good reason to let Markov walk, the potential of players like Max Pacioretty, Lars Eller and David Desharnais could be just as good of a reason not to upgrade the forward group.

A good risk

Ultimately, the decision will likely come down to the fact that players like Markov are much more difficult to find than perhaps any other – defencemen who can contribute offensively and who are sound defensively.

Should Markov stick around, the Canadiens would have two such defencemen among their top four – with an elite goalie behind them in Carey Price – and there aren't too many teams that can make that claim.

That would be the reward.

The risk is whether or not Markov can come back at a level that at least closely resembles what he was capable of doing prior to the knee injuries.

And it's one I feel the Canadiens should be willing to take, assuming Markov doesn't demand a ridiculous term and salary on his next contract.

The Team 990's Tony Marinaro has reported the Canadiens offered Markov a one-year deal with no salary increase, and that Meehan countered with a three-year deal. If that's true – and Tony has had a pretty good track record on these things – then the makings of a two-year deal appear to be in place.

If Markov accepted a two-year, $11.5 million contract, I would sign him to it pretty quickly.

Because if that risk pays off, it could very well vault the Canadiens defence to top-five status in the league.