The Canadiens enter this off-season in a very tricky situation.
There is little doubt, at least in this corner, that the team's future looks bright with Carey Price and P.K. Subban as the young foundation surrounded by character veterans and other promising kids.
However, a first round exit in the playoffs is not exactly reason to rest on your laurels, and those two cornerstones could make things complicated when their contracts expire a year from July 1.
Adding to the complexity is the fact the current Collective Bargaining Agreement is also set to expire at that time, and who really knows what tweaks to the system will come out of that process?
So, for now, let's look at what the Canadiens face going into next season.
First off, I've prepared my vision of the team's payroll for next season, counting only players already under contract and re-signings at my projected salary numbers. My speculation should not be taken as gospel by any means, but I'm hoping they are at least in the ballpark.
Finally, I'm going to use a $61 million salary cap number for next season, a slight increase over the current $59.4 million, but that is not based on anything other than an educated guess.
Forwards (12)
Scott Gomez (This number is obscenely high, viewer discretion is advised) - $7,357,143
Michael Cammalleri - $6 million
Brian Gionta - $5 million
Tomas Plekanec - $5 million
Andrei Kostitsyn - $3.25 million
Travis Moen - $1.5 million
Max Pacioretty - $1.5 million
Lars Eller - $1,270,833
David Desharnais - $700,000
Ryan White - $550,000
Mathieu Darche – $500,000
Tom Pyatt - $500,000
TOTAL for forwards – $33,127,976
Defence (6)
Andrei Markov - $5.75 million
Jaroslav Spacek - $3,833,333
Josh Gorges - $3.5 million
Hal Gill - $1.3 million
P.K. Subban - $875,000
Yannick Weber - $600,000
TOTAL for defence - $15,858,333
Goal (2)
Carey Price - $2.75 million
Alex Auld - $750,000
TOTAL - $3.5 million
Buyout
Georges Laraque - $500,000
GRAND TOTAL - $52,986,309
SALARY CAP SPACE - $8,013,691
The case for Gill
If my scenario played out, that would give the Canadiens the required 20 players under contract for next season with a lot of money left over to sign one defenceman and one or two forwards.
That flexibility would allow GM Pierre Gauthier to overpay a free agent if there is one out there that he covets more than any other, or it could leave the door open to re-sign someone like James Wisniewski and/or Roman Hamrlik.
I've already written about why I feel Kostitsyn and Markov should be signed, but let me explain why Hal Gill is a lock on my board among the defencemen, because I feel some people may not be sold on whether or not he should be brought back.
I wrote a story on NHL.com about the Canadiens outlook on defence for this year, and in it I had a quote from Gorges and one from Subban about Gill's presence on the team.
First, here's Gorges: "Talking with some of the staff today, the first thing I said was that no matter what happens, we have to get Hal back. You don't see it enough watching the games, a lot of people just look at numbers to figure out how good a player he is. But what he brings to this team is invaluable. It can't be replaced. He's kind of the cornerstone of what we're trying to build and the direction that we want to send this team in. If you lose that, you`re losing a big piece of how this dressing room is put together."
Now here's Subban: "When I come to the rink every day, whether it's after a tough loss or a big win, you look at a guy like him. You want to know, what's Hal like today? What's he like after a bad loss? What's he like after a big win? You look at guys like Brian Gionta, like Hal Gill, they're the same all the time. They never change. They never get too high, they never get too low. That's just the experience of it because they know as you high as you go, you're going to come back down at some point."
Case closed, as far as I'm concerned.
A forward is needed
So, with $8 million to spend, what area does Gauthier target?
I would be comfortable with the six defencemen I listed above, and if Hamrlik is willing to take a $2 million, one-year deal I'd bring him back as well and make Spacek the seventh guy.
If that were to happen, it would leave $6 million for one or two forwards.
If I'm Gauthier I throw a good chunk of that at Brooks Laich, assuming he makes it to July 1.
The Capitals are in a bit of a cap crunch and with Karl Alzner hitting RFA status this summer and his partner John Carlson to follow next year, it's possible they may not be able to meet Laich's needs.
He's 6-2, 200, plays in every imaginable situation, can play both centre and wing, wins faceoffs and hits people.
Laich made a shade over $2 million this season, and I wouldn't be overly shy to offer him just about double.
Laich is not the only fish in the sea, but in terms of providing a package deal for Gauthier to add size and scoring in the offseason with one single player, he's pretty unique.
Others that could fill one or both of those needs include Curtis Glencross ($1.2 million this past season), Tomas Kopecky ($1.2 million), Ville Leino ($800,000), Michael Rupp ($825,000), Boyd Gordon ($800,000) and Maxime Talbot ($1.05 million).
The only one above 30 years of age in that group is Rupp, and he's 31.
Next summer looms large
I think it's important that Gauthier address the size of the forward group, even with Max Pacioretty and Lars Eller emerging as skilled, big bodies.
It's also just as important that nothing drastic be done to tighten the Canadiens payroll heading into the summer of 2012, because the contracts for Price and Subban will be the most important this franchise have negotiated in some time.
If you were to add my projected salaries for Pacioretty, Desharnais, Markov, Gorges and Gill to the players already under contract for 2012-13, you come to a payroll figure of just over $36 million. Price, Subban and Eller would all be RFA with a new collective bargaining agreement hopefully coming into force on the very same day.
That CBA could allow the Canadiens more flexibility in terms of dealing with Gomez's contract, but no one really knows.
And that's probably the most difficult aspect of Gauthier's summer – that he needs to approach it with next year's uncertainty in the back of his mind.
